Der Kaffeepreis hat sich in den vergangenen Monaten turbulent entwickelt. Für die beteiligten Firmen ist es wichtig die Entwicklung des Kaffeepreises im Auge zu behalten. Marktberichte sind zumeist in englisch abgefasst.

“Dec coffee prices corrected down to a 5-week low from last month’s 13-year high. Bearish factors include (1) long liquidation fueled by increased rainfall in Brazil, which reduced concerns of crop damage due to overly dry conditions, (2) the prediction from Morgan Stanley that coffee prices are heading for weakness in the next few months as inventories are replenished, and (3) the prediction from agricultural consultant Safras & Mercado that Brazil’s bumper coffee harvest this year totaled 54.6 mln bags. Bullish factors include (1) tight supplies with the drop in NYBOT-monitored coffee stockpiles to a 10-year low of 1.95 mln bags, and (2) ICO’s estimate for a global coffee deficit of 8 mln bags for current marketing year (2009-10).

Fundamental Outlook-Bull Market Correction-Coffee prices are correcting lower from their recent 13-year high. Fundamentals remain bullish due to tight supplies. Coffee production in 2009/10 fell -5.9% y/y to 120.6 mln bags (ICO), but production should rebound to 133-135 mln bags in 2010/11 (ICO). Brazil’s 2010/11 (Jul-Jun) production will rise 23% y/y to 55.3 mln bags on their favorable 2-yr cycle (USDA).”

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